India vs New Zealand 4th T20I: a dead rubber that still feels like an exam

Every seemingly dead rubber T20 match takes on the air of a high-stakes challenge and an evaluation test, when chasing 155 in 10 overs and rendering 200-plus totals feel like a piece of cake.

Match setup: series state, stakes, and mindset

Coming rushing into the ACA-VDCA Stadium in Visakhapatnam on January 28, 2026, India are three games into the five-match series, holding a 3-0 lead. New Zealand, on the other hand, are fighting for a shred of pride, a clear understanding of their strategies and a sense of proof that their plans hold up in Indian conditions.

India’s batting records in this series have been nothing short of spectacular. They notched 238/7 in Nagpur, and had no issues adjusting the tempo of the game. In Raipur, they stumbled to a precarious 6/2, but still needed just 28 balls to chase down 209, and made 155/2 in Guwahi chasing a 154 in ten overs.

Chase and total snapshot

The 4th T20I question: can New Zealand force “normal” cricket

The only question now for the 4th T20I is, can New Zealand press India into a “normal” T20 match, and take control of the game themselves.

Regarding hitting sixes, Rohan batters don’t need tricky, low-percentage shots, he just nails the ball right out of the park.

Abhishek Sharma and the powerplay grip

Coming up against India in Guwahi, he showed the way to do it, hitting 68 not out off just 20 balls, and a half-century basically right away when New Zealand were still getting settled.

Well-known for getting the upper hand in the powerplay, Abhishek in particular makes India’s middle order think they can finish the game off by 16 overs.

For New Zealand, they’ve found out that “good balls” aren’t enough, they need wickets and they need them in the first two overs.

Suryakumar Yadav’s control of the chase

Suryakumar Yadav’s made his mark on this series, and in Raipur his 82 not out off 37 balls basically saved the day after they were 6/2. He has the knack of attacking the right bowlers at the right times instead of trying to hit everything, and in Guwahi, his 57 not out off 26 was the perfect partner to Abhishek’s aggressive start, sending New Zealand into a whirlwind game where they don’t get any respite.

Well-known as the game turns into a chase, New Zealand’s main goal is to stop SKY from walking into the game at 50 for 1 with nine overs left.

Ishan Kishan’s role in the middle overs

Ishan Kishan’s made a big difference in the way India’s middle overs unfold. Coming off the back of a dodgy start, he made 76 off 32 in Raipur and really turned the game around for his side. It wasn’t your typical “anchor” performance, more a bit of a counterpunch that knocked the wind out of New Zealand’s sails.

Kishan loves forcing the opposition to make decisions and gives them problems all over the place.

If they throw spin at him early, he skips down the track and hits it straight, and if they try to keep things steady, he stands firm and takes advantage of the off-side.

In this 4th T20I, New Zealand really should think about sending in their top wicket-taker at Kishan, even if it means using him a bit earlier than they’d like.

New Zealand’s totals: passable, but not enough

Looking at the last two performances, New Zealand’s totals of 190/7 in Nagpur and 208/6 in Raipur have been passable, but don’t hold up to the level of batting displayed by India. Coming fast through their innings, they found a bit of a lifeline in Glenn Phillips’ 78 off 40 in Nagpur, but didn’t have enough partners to get past 200.

In Raipur, Rachin Ravindra and Mitchell Santner dug in with 44 and 47 not out respectively to give them a respectable 208/6, but India chased that down like it was 180. In Guwahi, the wheels completely fell off, 153/9, with Phillips top-scoring at 48, and the Indian bowlers were nailing their mark.

New Zealand innings snapshot

What New Zealand need with the bat

New Zealand need to change their batting game if they want the IND vs NZ fourth T20I to be a real contest, aiming for one innings that can crush the opposition over 15 to 18 overs and less of those “nice little cameos”.

Jasprit Bumrah’s three-wicket spell in Guwahi (3/17) was the sort of thing that rewrites how batters think.

His odd-lengths make it impossible to predict when a big hit is going to come. Pair that with Ravi Bishnoi’s 2/18 and Hardik Pandya’s 2/23, and New Zealand’s batting lineup found themselves constantly back at square one.

Coming up against Bumrah in the IND vs NZ 4th T20I, New Zealand don’t have the luxury to “see him off”, it will burn up too many balls, and since they’re already running on fumes in this series, they’ll want a plan that doesn’t rely on getting past him.

India’s bowling: strong even when runs leak

India’s bowling has been fairly strong, even when they let runs leak out.

There’s one thing to watch out for though, they let 208 get away from them in Raipur.

Vizag conditions: pace, ocean air, and dew risk

India will be looking at their own mix, and considering the injuries they’ve had within the squad has already forced them to make a few changes on this tour, when watching the last T20I against New Zealand. Coming into the Vizag match, they now have the luxury to test out new combinations.

Visakhapatnam’s ACA-VDCA surface tends to be quite fast, and the ocean air can really add to the difficulty of gripping the ball, especially in the second half of the game. Well-known captaincy tactics need to take into account the likelihood of dew making batting harder.

If there’s a lot of dew, the chase becomes more attractive, and what may have initially looked like a safe target can now be quite precarious. For New Zealand, the worry is that if they bat first, score 195, and still watch India knock the runs down with eight balls an over, they could be in for a rough ride.

India’s hitters love the kind of bouncy ball they get in Vizag, which makes them feel more confident in hitting straight down the ground, and New Zealand’s spinners are relying on a dry ball to control the length and dip of their deliveries.

The toss as a read on plans

The toss in the IND vs NZ 4th T20I won’t be the only thing that determines the outcome of the game, it will be the first look into the opponent’s plans, and how New Zealand will respond to India’s batting line-up and strategy.

Powerplay wickets and bolder lengths

New Zealand need to introduce wicket-taking powerplay fields and bolder lengths. When Abhishek is hitting the ball early, anything short and back-of-a-length is just asking for trouble, floating deliveries and ultra-safe wide lines turn into hitting practice for him, and a straightish hard length with lots of fielders on the off-side is pretty risky, but it also produces the odd top edge and mis-hit.

Finishing pressure and late-overs damage control

The 20 overs they have left in the game must be much more than just about damage control. India have shown they have a very sharp finishing, thanks to Rinku Singh’s 44 not out off 20 in the first match, and if New Zealand leak 55 runs in their last four overs, they basically hand India a free 15-run head start.

The fifth bowler target and workload decisions

New Zealand need a batting strategy that zeroes in on India’s fifth bowler, and if India change their lineup and send in an extra batsman or a part-time option, that’s the over New Zealand have to nail.

The coaching staff may consider resting a fast bowler, giving a spinner an extra game or possibly using a finishing role, when deciding the roles for the 4th T20I between India and New Zealand.

Well-known injury concerns with some of the all-rounders in the squad could be the reason for this decision, and India will want a well-balanced combination of top-of-the-order punch, middle-order flexibility and bowling that takes care of both the powerplay and the death overs.

A question for India: defending 180 or built for shootouts

India can ask themselves a serious question in this game: could they defend 180 on a pitch that slows down, or are they completely geared up for shootouts.

The first two overs could seal the match

The fates of the game could be sealed in the first two overs by New Zealand, and if Abhishek doesn’t get them off to a flying start, their rest of their innings will become a survival exercise. They badly need either swing or very short lengths to unsettle him.

Kishan is being sent up against the spinners in the powerplay, and if he goes after them, New Zealand could lose their best control overs. If they keep one spinner for the middle period, it will only work if the powerplay has already gone.

Phillips, Santner, and the control-over problem

Phillips has been New Zealand’s most aggressive batsman in this series, and scored 78 in Nagpur and 48 in Guwati. India’s plan is to change his rhythm and hit the top of his off stump, but if he breaks this pattern, New Zealand’s score will skyrocket.

Santner showed last time out in Raipur that he can finish, and now New Zealand are counting on him to get four tight overs, and not a single wicket. If he goes at 12 to 14 runs an over, it’ll be a sprint for India.

Expectations, odds watching, and a par score range

Most people still expect a clear-cut result: who is ahead, India or New Zealand, in the 4th T20I, and based on the series so far, India look to be in a great position.

When watching the IND vs NZ 4th T20I and looking to follow the movement of the odds or pre-match markets, it’s best to keep a level head and remember that a Vizag evening can drastically swing the prices, something that is a common occurrence on platforms such as Reddy Anna Book at the time the teams are announced.

Coming into the game with a pure cricket perspective, a par score for this match could be around 185 to 200. New Zealand would likely need to knock out a 200+ score if they bat first, or early wickets if they’re bowling first to drag India into the late overs.

Series recap and the key performers

India started the series 3-0 up with a thrilling 238/7 in the first game, chased 209 in 15.2 overs in the second, and 155 in 10 overs in the third, and now have Abhishek Sharma, who has been absolutely crushing the powerplay. His 84 runs off just 35 balls in Nagpur and 68* off 20 in Guwahi, has made New Zealand push their plans to chase the match early, but Suryakumar Yadav, who has taken control of the game, will be putting a dent in those plans.

New Zealand’s best batting effort in the series was 208/6 in Raipur, with Rachin Ravindra hitting a 44, and Mitchell Santner a stunning 47*, however they still found it hard to contain India’s charge.

In order to navigate this Indian strength, New Zealand should concentrate on rotating their bowlers and managing workloads, to then attack the weakest overs and push the total past 200.